Forecasting for Health Supply Chains
My PhD research project is focused on improving demand forecasting for family planning to ensure contraceptives are always available when and where they are needed.
The Core Challenge: What Was Lost?
In public health, "zero demand" doesn't mean "zero need"—it often just means the shelves were empty. When health facilities run out of stock, the true demand from the community goes unrecorded. This "censored" or "lost" demand data leads to flawed forecasts, which in turn causes chronic under-stocking and reinforces a cycle of supply failure. My research focuses on breaking this cycle.
Key Outputs & Publications
Impact in Practice: EPSS Training
Research is most valuable when it's put into practice. As part of my PhD, I developed and delivered a two-day training workshop for practitioners at the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service (EPSS), equipping them with modern forecasting skills using R and Python.
Supervision & Collaboration Team
Funding & Partners
